What to Watch for Today: It may be closing day, but I can’t wait to get this one started. Barbaro’s 2-year-old kid brother, Lentenor, makes his racing debut in today’s fifth race for owner Lael Stables and trainer Michael Matz. Plus, we get to see the return of one of the fastest horses ever to compete on the Keeneland Polytrack, Carnacks Choice. If that’s not enough, we get a battle of the sexes in the Fayette Handicap, which also features past Blue Grass, Breeders Futurity and Ben Ali winners!
Weather: Blustery winds for the second straight day are forecasted, but less strong than what was seen Friday. Morning rain showers are expected with temperatures taking a dip of nearly 30 degrees from Friday’s unseasonably warm temperatures.
Polycapping 101: In this section, we’ll get race and horse specific to help your handicapping.
Only four trainers have won two or more maiden claiming routes on the Polytrack, and two of them appear in Race 1 this afternoon – Tom Proctor (Morigami) and Ken McPeek (Hibiscus Drive). Almost shockingly, only 2 of the 21 races in this situation have netted a winner above 10-1 odds, and none above 14-1.
Trainer Michael Stidham tries to shorten the game for South Beach Luv in Race 3 today, but note that of the barn’s 10 wins on the Keeneland Polytrack, only 2 have come when turning back from a route to a sprint.
With a large field going 1-1/2 miles on turf in Race 4, think deep closers. The last 8 races over this course and distance with 10 or more starters have produced average winners a whopping 11 lengths off the pace after the opening half-mile and only one horse within 4-1/2 lengths of the lead at that juncture.
All eyes will be on Lentenor in Race 5 as Barbaro’s baby bro debuts. Note that first-time starters have held their own quite well, winning 8 of the 27 maiden special weight juvenile races at 7 furlongs all-time on the Polytrack. Six of those winning firsters at this distance were within 1.5 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. Favorites are a rock-solid 10-27 (37%) in this situation, and it will interesting to see if the public opts for Lentenor or Positive Spirit, a recent runner-up for a Ken McPeek barn that has won a record 3 juvenile 7-furlong MSW races all-time (tied with Dale Romans).
Favorites have scored just over 15% of the time in turf miles since the fall ’06 meeting, so don’t be afraid of a price in Race 6. The chalk 0-6 in this scenario during the current meeting, and the average winner this meet and all-time sits a shade below 9-1 odds. Julien Leparaoux has 12 turf mile wins here during that time; no other active Keeneland regular has more than 3.
Carnacks Choice returns to his favorite course in Race 7 when he makes his first start since a spring-meet Keeneland win. Note that he’s competed in 2 of the 3-fastest races ever at 6 furlongs on the Keeneland Polytrack. His April 9, 2008 victory in 1:08.49 is the third-fastest race ever on this track, while he finished third by a length in the 2008 Phoenix Stakes won by Sing Baby Sing in 1:08.48, the second-fastest time ever recorded here. (He Loves Me Not holds the track record at 1:08.30, set during the ’07 Sprint meeting.). And for the record, Carnacks Choice owns the second-fastest time ever at 7 furlongs as well (1:21.05 in the ’07 Lafayette Stakes), only topped by Informed Decision’s ’08 Raven Run Stakes clocking of 1:20.86.
Feature Race Play: The Grade 2 $150,000 Fayette Handicap puts a bow on the fall meet stakes schedule in Race 9 today. Tizfiz will try to become the first filly or mare to win this race since Chou Croute in 1972 when she meets a deep field of 10 that includes ’07 Blue Grass champ Dominican, ’07 Breeders Futurity victor Wicked Style and ’09 Ben Ali dominator Parading.
Don’t get too hung up on distance. All 3 Fayette winners in the Polytrack era raced shorter than 1-1/8 miles last time out. But there’s no denying the brilliance of Parading’s Ben Ali Stakes over this trip during the spring meet, where he posted the second-fastest time ever on the Polytrack (1:47.82). Jade’s Revenge also is a Ben Ali winner (2007), winning multiple stakes locally, and he bounced back nicely to form here 16 days ago for trainer Graham Motion.
Parading must tote 123 pounds, giving away 4 to 7 pounds, and the sophomores getting that 7-pound break include Super Derby runner-up Blame and Indiana Derby runner-up Giant Oak. Neither are slouches, and the weight allowance will be a big boost. Giant Oak is by Giant’s Causeway, one of the most dominant sires of the Keeneland Poly era. Blame won over this track last fall sprinting, and has proven to be a tough hombre in routes this year.
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin swept both divisions of the Valley View Stakes here last week and tries for a third high-dollar heist of the meet with longshot National Pride.
This is a wonderful race, and a fabulous way to bid you all farewell on another great Keeneland meeting. Thanks for reading and all the kind and thoughtful emails. On the way out the door, I’ll leave you with the sophomores, Giant Oak and Blame, in an exacta box with Parading.
A tip of the hat to Keeneland's Nick Nicholson, Julie Balog and many others on the staff for their dedication to helping horseplayers by utilizing the power of the internet.
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