What to Watch for Today: With only two days remaining in the meet, we super-size the Friday offering with a 10-race card. G3 Washington Park Handicap winner Gran Estreno is among the leading players entered today, competing in Race 4.

Jockeys E.T. Baird and Julien Leparoux both won two races Thursday, and the former continues to dazzle on the front end and debunk many Polytrack myths that you can't win on the lead.

Weather: Good news, bad news. The good news is temperatures are expected to climb past 70 degrees. The bad news is showers and winds approaching 20 mph also are on the forecast. Keep an eye on the flags and the changes as turf races could be impacted.

Polycapping 101: In this section, we’ll get race and horse specific to help your handicapping.

To say we don’t see many 1-1/8 miles maiden claimers on the Keeneland Polytrack would be an understatement. Today’s first race is just the third ever (a pair run during ’07 fall meet, one of which was won by a Tom Proctor trainee – Proctor sends out Matai in Race 1 today). Another to watch would be Royal Rossi, trained by Mike Stidham, who joins Proctor, Ken McPeek and Hugh Robertson as the only conditioners to win two or more maiden claiming routes on Poly at any distance.

Of trainer Merrill Scherer’s 15 wins on the Keeneland Poly, 10 have come with mid- to upper-level claimers (between $25,000 and $50,000), two of them already this meeting. Simply put: He spots his horses very well. Give Attractive Ride a longer look in Race 3, a $50,000 claiming sprint.

Don’t get too snobbish in your class evaluation in Race 4. Of the three previous optional claiming/allowance races held this meeting, the winners last raced at Presque Isle, Hoosier and Kentucky Downs. Last-out Presque Isle starters also won twice in six offerings last fall at this class level.

Arlington invaders have accounted for 3 of the 4 races held this meeting for $30,000 non-winners of 2 lifetime claiming. In Race 5, give extra consideration to Steps Silver Halo for that reason, as well as Moral, who comes from Arlington this summer via a pitstop at Kentucky Downs.

Since the entire Race 6 field has just one effort to show over the Keeneland Polytrack on paper, let’s look for some pedigree clues. Unbridled’s Song has produced 16 winners over this Poly, but only 4 of them at 6 furlongs or less. He’s represented by firsters Warbling and Patti’s Regal Song, with the former blazing a.m. bullets at Churchill. Sire Sky Mesa (rep’d by Blue Yonder) has produced 8 winners, including 2 first-time starters, over this track, including ’09 Blue Grass winner General Quarters. Meanwhile, Forestry (rep’d by Aljanel) has 6 winners, all maidens and three of them MSW older horses like this. More Than Ready (rep’d by Iwillinaminute) also has had 6 winners, including impressive firster Ready’s Image during the ’07 spring meeting. Note that Pulpit (rep’d by Sister Dyer) has had an impressive 12 winners, but only 3 in sprints.

While we’re at it, let’s talk genes with the Race 8 babies, who also have one combined start at Keeneland. See the stats above on Unbridled’s Song (rep’d by Life Begins), Pulpit (rep’d by Heavenly Court) and Forestry (rep’d by Sacred Forest). Young sire Ghostzapper (rep’d by Dynazapper) got his first Kee Poly win earlier this meet routing, while fellow relative newcomers Afleet Alex (rep’d by Lady Laurie Snow) and Value Plus (red’d by Reba’s Values) are both waiting to break the seal. Of the 5 wins for Arch (rep’d by Darling Desha), 4 have come sprinting. Harlan’s Holiday (Harlan’s Princess) has 3 wins, all in cheaper claiming or starter races. The powerhouses here include A.P. Indy (rep’d by Rendition), who has 16 wins, among them a 2YO MSW win already this meeting by New York-raiding Protesting. Giant’s Causeway (rep’d by Toll) has 15 wins, but none of them with 2-year-olds here and only 5 of them sprinting.

Feature Race Play: We’ll give the feature spotlight to Race 9 given its traditional place in the race order for the main event, though Race 7 takes no backseat in purse or allowance conditions. Race 9 is a 1-1/2 miles turf allowance, a race where the average winner has been 6 lengths behind after the opening half-mile since the ’06 fall meeting.

Three trainers in today’s ninth have won twice at the marathon turf trip at Keeneland over the past four years. Graham Motion (Attessa and Million Seller, who run uncoupled), Rusty Arnold (After Thought) and John Glenney (Miss Rufus) have rung the bell twice with winners at this distance on the local turf. After Thought has a lot of appeal with that A.P. Indy on the damside of the pedigree and fact that jockey Robby Albarado has won a colony-best 5 races at the turf marathon trip since the ’06 fall meet. I’ll lean that way despite a very unattractive post.

Feel free to drop me an E-mail anytime at Jeremy@Horseplayerpro.com.

What to Watch for Today: Ocean Colors, a 3-year-old daughter of legendary Kentucky Derby-winning filly Winning Colors, makes her Keeneland return in the Race 8 allowance feature today.

Weather: Pristine autumn conditions are in the forecast, with mostly sunny skies and a high temperature of 66 degrees.

Polycapping 101: In this section, we’ll get race and horse specific to help your handicapping.

Maiden claimers route 1-1/16 miles on the Polytrack, and while that might sound chaotic to open the card, note that favorites are 8-for-21 (38%) in these situations all-time and none of the winners have been above 14-1. Arlington invaders have won 3 of the 4 such races held at this meeting, and all 4 winners raced within 2-1/4 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile.

Five horses in Race 2 will be making their second start of the fall meet, horses I like to call “run-backs.” Heading into this week’s racing, we’ve seen 5 run-backs already win this meet and traditionally closing week is a haven for that maneuver.

Speaking of “run-backs,” be on the lookout in Race 4 today. It’s at 1-1/8 miles on turf, and of the 4 races over this course and distance this meeting, 2 of them were won by horses who already had started at the meeting and came back on two weeks’ rest. Yolo, Forest Trail, Pari and She’s Due fit the bill.

Of jockey Kent Desormeaux’s first 10 wins at the fall meeting, 4 have come at the 1-1/16 miles distance on Polytrack. He partners with class-dropping Stream Cat in Race 5 today at that trip.

Favorites are a sizzling 8-for-14 (57%) in 2-year-old maiden special weight races this meeting. The babies will be put to the test in Race 6. Surprisingly, only 3 of the 14 events this meeting have been won by first-time starters – only 3 of the entrants in Race 6 have had any afternoon experience.

Don’t be afraid of a price bomber in Race 7. Of the 10 biggest longshot winners of the entire 2009 fall meeting, 6 of them have come at 7 furlongs on the Polytrack.

Also be on price patrol in the Race 9 finale, where lower-level claimers route the tough 1-1/8 miles distance on Polytrack. Of the 4 such races this meeting, we’ve had a pair of 11-1 winners and a 7-1 price as well. Horses running back for the second time at the meet have done exceptionally well in these spots during past and present fall meets (cheaper horses, route distance). Give a longer look at run-back horses Spark of Humor, Six Shots and Biggerbadderbetter.

Feature Race Play: Turf sprinters are in the spotlight in the Race 8 allowance feature. Note that only 1 of the 14 turf dashes here since the ’06 fall meeting have been won by posts 1-2 (lone winner came from the 2-hole).

Only 4 of 14 winners led after the opening half-mile, with the average winner still more than 2 lengths behind at that juncture. None of the 14 winners turned back in distance from a previous start greater than 6-1/2 furlongs, while 13 of the 14 exited turf preps.

When you toss out the inside two posts, horses making a surface change, and those who ran more than 6-1/2 furlongs last time, this 12-horse field pares down to just: Elusive Sparkle, That’s So Funny and Simply Seattle (Antepova is on the also-eligible list). That’s So Funny and Simply Seattle appear to be speed horses, so I’ll give the edge to the late-running Elusive Sparkle under Calvin Borel.

Feel free to drop me an E-mail anytime at Jeremy@Horseplayerpro.com.

What to Watch for Today: We open the final four days of the 2009 fall meeting this afternoon, and as is our weekly kick-off custom, we take a look back at the “trends that were” for the previous week of action.

Favorites scored a perfectly satisfying one-third of the time during the past week on Polytrack, going 12-for-36 and performing as you might expect as the meet builds. The winning favorites by week have risen from 17% to 29% to 33% as the racing becomes more familiar to horseplayers each passing week of a season. The average odds on the winners also have steadily declined from 11.86-to-1 to 7.44-to-1 to 5.54-to-1 last week.

Speed played well on the Polytrack in sprints, as the average winner when you toss out the one biggest closer was just .98 lengths off the pace after the opening half-mile. Routers were just 2.15 lengths off the lead after the opening-half mile when you remove the biggest closer of the week. That number is more than a full length closer to the pace on average than each of the previous two weeks of the season, as well as the all-time Polytrack average of -3.33 lengths in routes.

On the turf in 11 races last week, forwardly placed horses won 6 times, but unfathomably deep closers also won 3 times (twice at 1-1/2 miles). Favorites were just 2-for-11 on grass and just 5-for-23 on the meeting (22%). On Polytrack, by comparison, favorites have won 28% overall this meet.

Weather: Wet conditions Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning are expected to give way to afternoon sunshine and high temperatures right around the 60-degree mark. Keep an eye on the course conditions and changes as Races 3 and 7 are scheduled for the turf.

Polycapping 101: In this section, we’ll get race and horse specific to help your handicapping.

Early speed has been deadly in maiden claiming sprinters this season as we open Race 1 for a $40,000 tag at 6 furlongs. Eight of the 10 races at the meet so far have been within 1-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. Horses from Arlington lead the charge at this class level during the meet with 4 winners (Turfway 3), so give a long look at speedy Sea Scamp from Chi-town. Race 4 also is for $80,000 maiden claimers sprinting 7 furlongs. Monte is the lone Arlington rep in that field and exits a very strong race while adding blinkers. Note that first-time starters have won just 2 of the 34 all-time MCL races at 7 furlongs!

Speaking of Arlington, Race 2 is a $30,000 non-winners of 2 claimer. Of the 4 such races run this meet, 3 have been won by Arlington raiders. Rainbow Sky and Daunbeforethemast would appear to be sitting pretty. Also note that 3 of the 4 winners at this level this fall moved from turf-to-Polytrack, just as this pair both attempts.

As we look at Race 3, note that turf sprints traditionally are no place for a surface change at Keeneland. While only 14 have been run since the ’06 fall meet at any level, 13 were captured by horses exiting a turf sprint race at 6-1/2 furlongs or shorter. It’s almost impossible to believe, but only Del Mar invader Hockeythehayman exits a turf sprint among this field. Perfect Officer certainly would qualify as a proven turf sprinter, however his last race was rained off the Meadowlands grass to the dirt.

Turfway shippers have fared extremely well historically in fall meet starter allowance races, winning 8 of the 17 offered to date on the Polytrack. Keep that in mind as you eyeball race 5.

Two-year-olds go a mile on the grass in Race 7, and if a lack of running lines has you scratching your head for an angle, consider pedigrees. Sparky’s Dream has a massive edge here, as sire Giant’s Causeway has produced 6 winners on the Kee lawn since the ’06 fall meet. The only other sire in this race represented by a winner during that time is Johar (Martita Sangrita), who has a single local grass winner.

Trainer Barclay Tagg has likely favorite Doc N Roll in the Race 9 finale (as well as well-backed Academy Run in Race 6 today). Tagg has won just twice on the Polytrack at Keeneland, with both horses coming off of dirt preps. His runners Wednesday both come off of grass races. In fact, he’s only tried to go turf-to-synthetic on 6 occasions all-time at any track, never winning (according to DRF.com Formulator stats). While both look very good on paper, perhaps we might swing against them in hopes of landing a bigger fish.

Feature Race Play: A full field of 12 allowance fillies clash in Race 8, the main event on the Wednesday card. Favorites are 0-for-7 in seven-furlong allowance races this meeting, and these races have produced 15-1, 22-1 and 40-1 winners. Five of the winners came out of turf races, and five of the winners also turned back in distance from a mile last time out. Both factors could bode well for Rajpur Road, on the rise off a turf mile win at Kentucky Downs.

Both of trainer Darrin Miller’s wins at the current meeting have come at 7 furlongs on the Polytrack, and he’ll try to add to that with Excelente, luring Julien Leparoux to ride. The Frenchman has 4 wins at the distance so far this meeting, most of any rider.

Let’s keep it simple to open the week and get some win-place action on Rajpur Road, whose sire, Arch, has produced 5 Polytrack sprint winners in recent fall meetings.

Feel free to drop me an E-mail anytime at Jeremy@Horseplayerpro.com.