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Over the next few days, we’ll crack into Keeneland’s wonderfully useful Polycapping database to get you ready for the upcoming action. It’s free to use on the website, highly recommended to download into your own spreadsheets, and a serious tool for both serious players and those just looking for an occasional edge.
All of the data used here and throughout the season will be gleaned directly from the Polycapping database, helping to teach you how to drive the bus yourself and unlock your own hidden gems of value. (Check out: The PolyCapping tool.)
We’re now 744 races into the Polytrack era at Keeneland after six completed racing meets. The 2009 fall meeting will mark lucky No. 7 when the season debuts on Friday with a card that includes the G2 Alcibiades and G3 Phoenix Stakes. Keeneland’s 3 previous fall meetings on Polytrack have averaged a whopping 10.16 starters per race, proving extremely popular among horsemen at the entry box. That means value to the horseplayer and big prices where you can land them.
Up to Speed with Sprints
Just over 67 percent of all Polytrack races held during the fall meetings all-time have been sprints around one turn. Honing in on your sprint skills is the best place to start. Favorites own a 30.1 percent winning rate in all Polytrack sprints, with an average sprint winner of 7.30-to-1 odds.
More than 24 percent of all Polytrack fall sprint winners were horses turning back (shortening) in distance from a race at a mile or longer last time out. Trainers to have had the most success with that move, each winning 3 times, include Dallas Stewart, Graham Motion and Ian Wilkes.
Sire Tale of the Cat has produced 10 fall meet Polytrack sprint winners, easily most all-time, outpacing Grand Slam, Unbridled’s Song and Indian Charlie with 6 apiece.
In terms of race shape, the average Polytrack sprint winner during fall meets has been 1.85 lengths behind the leader after the opening half-mile. Only 21 percent of the winners have led after the opening half-mile. But only 12 percent rallied from more than 5 lengths back after the opening half-mile. In other words, you want a horse who can sit just off the pacesetters. In fact, 61 percent of all sprint winners during the fall meet have been on the lead or within 2 lengths of the leader after the opening half-mile.
Horses from no less than 30 different last-start locales have won Polytrack sprints during the past 3 fall meetings, not to mention the first-time starters. In all, 67 of the 292 Poly sprint races have gone to horses coming out of preps at Turfway Park. Arlington shippers accounted for 39 winners, Saratoga 27, Presque Isle Downs 18 and Kentucky Downs 16.
Trainer Dallas Stewart’s 11 Polytrack sprint wins are the most of any fall meet conditioner, chased closely by Dale Romans’ 10 and Ken McPeek’s 8. A few barns that might surprise you include 7 fall meet sprint wins by Philip Sims and Eddie Kenneally.
We’ll take a look at Polytrack routes and turf racing later this week.
Preparing for Fall
Between now and Friday’s opening day card, this blog will serve as a meet primer. Beginning Friday and every racing day of the meeting, the focus will be to lend insight into what to look for on that afternoon’s program. Each race day’s blog will contain items such as: What to Watch for Today, Weather, Recent Track Trends, Polycapping, Trakus Facts and a Play of the Day.
Keeneland also provides a great, nightly service with The Winner’s Book, recapping the season action at-a-glance.
Feel free to drop me an E-mail anytime at Jeremy@Horseplayerpro.com. Check back Wednesday as we set the table for Friday’s opening day card. |