It’s great to be back in the Keeneland springtime mix and to see the fruits of our labor last year turn into real success for horseplayers. As many of you know, I had an instrumental hand in the development of the Keeneland.com Polycapping database, an amazing free tool that debuted last fall and almost instantly began to erode many of the uncertainties of handicapping the relatively new surface.

 

How can I make such a claim? Favorites won exactly 33 percent of the races held on the Polytrack last fall meeting, which puts Keeneland exactly on the mark horseplayers expect a fair racing surface to produce. Prior to that, favorites won at a 26-percent combined clip in the previous meetings over the all-weather surface.

 

It’s far more logical to conclude that horseplayers got smarter with more experience and handicapping tools than to think that horses suddenly reversed form and began running to their odds. As we know, the horse only cares where his hayrack and water bucket hang. Last I checked, they still can’t read the tote board.

 

Rites of Spring

 

Keeneland’s spring meet must be treated differently than the fall version. The circuits that feed the action are vastly different, dominated by Gulfstream and Fair Grounds runners who join the Kentucky veterans from Turfway. You don’t see nearly as many horses going from all-weather tracks to all-weather tracks in the spring as you do fall, where horses come in readily from all-weather venues like Arlington, Turfway, Woodbine and Presque Isle Downs.

 

Recent form should not be under-valued when handicapping the Keeneland spring meeting, even with a greater number of horses making surface changes. Here’s a stat you need to keep in mind: During the 2008 fall meeting, 60 of 127 Polytrack winners (47 percent) were coming off an all-weather surface prep; but during the 2008 spring meeting, only 38 of 119 winners (32 percent) were coming off an all-weather surface prep. To further that point, more Polytrack winners at Keeneland over the past two spring meetings were coming off the dirt (38 percent) than all-weather tracks (29 percent) or 48 turf courses (20 percent).

 

Excellent value can be found in horses with “hidden form,” those efforts buried deep in the past performances but that have been screaming to burst out once back on the Polytrack. But to limit your thought process merely to Polytrack specialists is short-sighted. You’d be surprised to know that 54 of the 119 winners (45 percent) last spring meeting were making their first attempts ever on an all-weather surface. The number remains strong when you factor out the 14 first-time starters to win as well, leaving 40 of 105 (38 percent) winners who were making their all-weather surface debuts.

 

Nineteen different racetracks spring-boarded winners on the Keeneland Polytrack last spring meeting, so the victors can come from far and wide. But 62 of the 119 Polytrack winners came from just three locales: Gulfstream (20), Fair Grounds (22) and Turfway (22). That’s where you need to start your focus.

 

Fitness is a major key on the Polytrack and has been even more exaggerated during the spring meeting, likely because horses this time of year have much less foundation under them than in the fall. Last spring, 17 of 34 six-furlong races were won by horses turning back in distance from a longer race. Meanwhile, 12 of 28 seven-furlong sprints also were won in turn-back style. Continuing the fitness point, but looking at it from another angle: Only three of the 35 route races at 1-1/16 miles or 1-1/8 miles last spring were won by horses who stretched out from a sprint to a route.

 

Between now and Friday’s opening day card, this blog will serve as a meet primer. Beginning Friday and every racing day of the meeting, the focus will be to lend insight into what to look for on that afternoon’s program. Each race day’s blog will contain items such as: What to Watch for Today, Weather, Recent Track Trends, Polycapping, Trakus Facts and a Play of the Day.

 

Feel free to drop me an E-mail anytime at Jeremy@Horseplayerpro.com. Check back Tuesday as we set the table for Friday’s opening day card.